We’re forecasting the election with three models. Please continue to respect all commenters and create constructive debates. … North Carolina 66, Florida State 63. October 30, 2020, 11:58 AM Two new polls are shoring up predictions that Democrats will sweep North Carolina's statewide races next week. Consistently a swing state in the last few elections, North Carolina is within Joe Biden’s reach just as Donald Trump tries to cling on in the South. There’s little between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the latest North Carolina Election odds (Democrats 8/11 (1.73) with bet365, Republicans Evens (2.0) at time of writing), although the polling suggests Biden is leading ahead of Election Day. Republican Dan Bishop’s reward for winning a September 2019 special election? North Carolina isn’t juicy enough to bet and I’d prefer to use my bankroll for this game in the following betting markets. Against the spread (ATS) The Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. GOP Rep. Richard Hudson’s district became more competitive in the state’s 2019 redistricting: Under the new lines, Donald Trump won the seat by 9 points in 2016. In 2016, Trump won North Carolina by 4 points. North Carolina predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Email [email protected]. Analysis. Both presidential candidates have hit the trail in North Carolina several times in the election’s last furlong, and Mr Trump in particular. It allows our most engaged readers to debate the big issues, share their own experiences, discuss real-world solutions, and more. 2019 North Carolina 9th District Post-Election Analysis, September 11, 2019. North Carolina was one of 13 battleground states.. Former Vice President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2020. Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. With 15 electoral votes, North Carolina going for Joe Biden wouldn’t decide the election on its own – but with the state expected to count relatively quickly on Election Night, it could offer an early signal about Biden’s performance around the country. Meanwhile, the famed New York Times election needle — which currently has Trump with overwhelming chances of winning Florida — has North Carolina going for … Additional data from U.S. Census Bureau and POLITICO reporting. Mr Biden is closing the campaign with a lead of roughly 2 points across various polls, making the state a near-tossup for him at best. Create a commenting name to join the debate, There are no Independent Premium comments yet - be the first to add your thoughts, There are no comments yet - be the first to add your thoughts. This is the third election we have covered and … North Carolina vs NC State prediction and game preview. Republicans have carried North Carolina in 11 of the last 13 presidential elections. North Carolina Democratic Gov. Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? Democrats believe their candidate, former state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson, has a chance. Hillary Clinton lost North Carolina by 3.66 points, slightly more than Barack Obama’s 2012 loss by 2. The past three GOP presidential candidates have each received between 49 and 50 percent in North Carolina. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. Click to see who is projected to carry North Carolina's 15 electoral votes. Election Projection. What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8. Another such dip would cost the GOP the state. A Biden victory there could signal that Donald Trump is in for a crushing loss rather than a photo finish; a Trump victory, by contrast, could indicate he’s clung on in some of the closest races. Prediction. Thank you to all the fans of this page. A forecast uses partial returns to estimate an election’s final result. North Carolina was very close and could have gone either way, but we will have to work harder next cycle to get Florida right. Biden leads by 2.7 points on average in polls in North Carolina, a state that went to Trump by 3.6 points in 2016. Are you sure you want to delete this comment? Against the spread (ATS) Florida State’s second-leading scorer and … North Carolina’s GOP-controlled Legislature is redrawing the state’s congressional map, after a state court signaled it was likely to strike down the current map for partisan gerrymandering. Patrick McHenry* (R) vs. David Parker (D). Start your Independent Premium subscription today. His approval ratings have risen with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, and he's now the favorite to beat GOP Lt. Gov. Hillary Clinton carried it by 11 points. See our election dashboard and find your local races. Money line (ML) PASS ON THE MONEY LINE with a lean on North Carolina (+155) since I’ll be taking the Tar Heels plus points. Money line (ML) The better shooting team is recommended: TAKE SYRACUSE +165. North Carolina is also hosting a key Senate race, pitting Republican incumbent Thom Tillis against Democrat Cal Cunningham. And while Trump carried North Carolina in 2016 by 3.5 percent, his margin of victory in 2020 was just 1.4 percent in 2020. NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – Many people across the country are casting their vote early for the 2020 presidential election and that’s no different for a squirrel in North … North Carolina results for the 2020 presidential election, Senate and House races, and governor race. After that judgment came down, the state began instituting tough “Voter ID” and other laws that essentially made voting more difficult in 2016. But Democrats don’t have a well-funded candidate as they did in 2019, when Bishop won by only 2 points. The original election projection website, since 2003. 3 min read. This site's prediction forecasted 48 of the 50 states correctly, missing only Florida and North Carolina. I really enjoy doing this and hope you felt it valuable as well. They have not … Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. Read our full mailing list consent terms here. We’re tracking full results for Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump. As a … By David Fucillo @davidfucillo Updated Nov 4, 2020, 11:42am PST See election results, a county-by-county map and more for the North Carolina: Treasurer election on Nov. 3, 2020. And let’s not forget, North Carolina also re-elected its Democratic governor in 2020. See something wrong with our data? Congressional district presidential results from Daily Kos. Published 11/19/2019 5:00 PM ESTUpdated 11/2/2020 4:30 AM EDT. North Carolina backed the winning presidential candidate in each election between 2000 and 2016 … The latter is polling clearly ahead despite a sexting scandal involving an affair with a party staffer, which failed to severely dent his numbers. G.K. Butterfield* (D) vs. Sandy Smith (R). North Carolina’s above-average defensive efficiency numbers are based on some stale non-conference games. We analyzed North Carolina’s race for governor to determine who we think will win in 2020. New district lines two months later that could make his seat slightly more competitive. We analyzed North Carolina’s elections to determine who we think will win in 2020. Senate . The state has an ugly recent history of voter suppression dating back to the US Supreme Court’s crucial elimination of part of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? North … Our final pre-election forecast is that Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in North Carolina. Get live polls and voting maps by county and district. … Polls-plus forecast. Prediction. Chance of winning North Carolina over time The chance of … Texas A&M vs. North Carolina prediction, pick, odds, line, live stream, TV channel, Orange Bowl kickoff time Chip Patterson 5 days ago Jacob Blake … Trump won the Republican primary. Twice it was enough to win; it wasn’t enough in 2008. PRESIDENT TRUMP 260 -46 BIDEN 278 +46. He will be especially concerned about the state given he is also on the defence in not just Florida, but also Georgia – the loosest grip a Republican has held on the South in more than a generation. Democrat Cal Cunningham has consistently led GOP Sen. Thom Tillis, who lags behind Trump in polls. 2016 Election Forecast. We’re tracking full results for Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump. Updated Nov. 9, 2016. Bill Clinton might have won North Carolina if hadn’t rained on Election Day in 1992, according to a 2007 study. The Tarheel State could be the canary in the mine on Election Night, Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile. RALEIGH (WTVD) -- Who will carry the key swing state of North Carolina? A federal appeals court struck part of the law down in 2017, saying it had targeted Black voters with “almost surgical precision”. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. North Carolina is a critical swing state in the 2020 presidential election. Early voting in … Track the 2020 North Carolina Presidential Election here. 2008. Polling throughout the summer and autumn has seen North Carolina bounce back and forth between the tossup and “lean Biden” columns, but it has never looked like a safe Democratic state. FiveThirtyEight's North Carolina polls and forecast for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election. First, a quick history of my election predictions. The redraw is likely to dramatically change several incumbents’ fortunes in the next few weeks. He needs Republican voters to come home in order to win a second term. When North Carolina’s GOP-controlled state Legislature redrew the congressional map in Nov. 2019, it made Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s district a little more competitive. Like North Carolina, Georgia is predicted to lean very slightly Democratic in our model despite going to Trump in 2016. As it turns out, our concerns over McCready’s lack of momentum were well-founded. A special election was held on September 10, 2019, to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 9th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress. A Secret Service agent watches over preparations for a Trump rally in Hickory, NC, {{#verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}} {{^verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}}, Polls and predictions in North Carolina ahead of election day, You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully, Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable, Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties, We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification. North Carolina's GOP-controlled state Legislature is redrawing the state's congressional map, after a state court signaled it was likely to strike down the current map for partisan gerrymandering. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Roy Cooper sailed through the March primary election, giving an acceptance speech about growing up the son of a public school teacher and working on a farm. In this election, North Carolina was 5.74% right of the nation as a whole. It had been one of her target states in the southeast, along with Florida; it was exit polling and early returns from North Carolina (and Florida) that helped signal early on that she was in for a disappointing night in some of the more competitive states. Democrats Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama won in 1976 and 2008, respectively. With 15 electoral votes, North Carolina going for Joe Biden wouldn’t decide the election on its own – but with the state expected to count relatively quickly on Election … It is obvious what the Republicans took from this. President Donald Trump (R) won the presidential election in North Carolina on November 3, 2020. Syracuse 71, North Carolina 70. GOP voters in this Western North Carolina district picked 25-year-old Madison Cawthorn to replace former Rep. Mark Meadows — who resigned to become White House chief of staff — over Meadows' preferred successor, Lynda Bennett. David Rouzer* (R) vs. Christopher Ward (D), Richard Hudson* (R) vs. Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D). Democrat Roy Cooper outperformed his party's presidential and Senate nominees in 2016 to win a narrow victory. The redraw is likely to dramatically change several incumbents' fortunes in the next few weeks. He came up about two points short in the off-off year vote. Due to the sheer scale of this comment community, we are not able to give each post the same level of attention, but we have preserved this area in the interests of open debate. North Carolina margin estimates over time . North Carolina is one of … North Carolina Primary Forecast. President. The most insightful comments on all subjects will be published daily in dedicated articles. While the Republicans got the “W,” both sides have something positive out of this election. Hours before Election … You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. Both its Senate seats have gone to Republicans in the latest elections. Dan Forest. ElectionProjection.com is for sale! READ MORE: The Electoral College, explained. Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. You can also choose to be emailed when someone replies to your comment. North Carolina vs NC State Broadcast Date: Saturday, October 24 Game Time: 12:00 ET Venue: Kenan … Once a state has counted all its votes, our estimated margin and the reported margin will match. The seemingly never-ending election to represent North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District will (probably) come to a close on Tuesday. Georgia’s election laws allowed for mail-in ballots to be pre-processed as early as Sept. 15, leading its Secretary of State to predict that we could see results by election night. The existing Open Comments threads will continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium. See our election dashboard and find your local races. Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the MIT Election Lab. Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines. The North Carolina 9th District seat has remained vacant for a third of the 116th Congress — the fallout from a brazen case of election fraud that may have affected the outcome of … Special Correspondent for ABC News Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog puts Clinton slightly ahead. North Carolina’s special election is great news for Trump’s reelection chances North Carolina congressional candidate Dan Bishop, a Republican, celebrates … To all the fans of this election, North Carolina presidential election, Senate and House races, he... The redraw is likely to dramatically change several incumbents ' fortunes in the next few.. 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